TouchTonePoll.com
Five Minute Scientific Polls
TouchTonePoll.com conducted a rolling poll on Oahu between September 24th and November 3rd, 2008. Several thousand listed phone numbers of households of registered Oahu voters were called each day. A total of 7,104 valid respondents completed telephone surveys. Phone numbers were chosen randomly and calls were uniformly distributed across the 35 house districts on Oahu. Calls were made mostly in the evenings and all day on weekends.

Respondents were asked if the election were held today, how they would vote in the mayoral race and on the rail transit ballot question. If they live in a precinct with a house or senate race, they were asked how they would vote in those races. Then they were asked their gender, party affiliation and age. If they completed the survey and were 18 years or older, their survey was included in our results.

For the Mayoral race and the Rail ballot question, the first are two tables show the last 10 days results of a daily tracking poll up to the day before the election. Each column shows the results for surveys completed that day and the two previous days.

The Oahu State House and Senate race summaries are shown next. For each race, the left side of the table shows the poll results since September 24th. This may not be accurate especially as new information about new candidates arise toward the end of the campaign. The right side of the table shows the poll results for the last 5 days. The margins of error for the 5 day poll will be high but may still provide an indication which candidate has momentum. The statement describing the state of each race was generated automatically based on who is ahead and the margins of error. Polls for state legislative races can be very unreliable as election day campaigning and GOTV activites can add a couple hundred votes which can flip a close race.

 

Honolulu Mayoral Race
Three Day Tracking Poll
 
 Last 3 Days Ending:      Fr10/24 



Mufi Hannemann    51.3% 



Ann Kobayashi    41.9% 



Undecided    6.8% 



Margin of Error    +4.4% 



Completed Surveys    499 
(Daily Count)     182 
      
 Sa10/25 

 50.9% 

 42.3% 

 6.8% 

 +3.8% 

 650 
 254 
  
 Su10/26 

 51.2% 

 42.5% 

 6.3% 

 +3.8% 

 650 
 214 
  
 Mo10/27 

 50.9% 

 43.1% 

 6.0% 

 +4.0% 

 613 
 145 
  
 Tu10/28 

 51.4% 

 41.9% 

 6.8% 

 +4.3% 

 518 
 159 
  
 We10/29 

 50.4% 

 42.6% 

 7.0% 

 +4.6% 

 446 
 142 
  
 Th10/30 

 48.5% 

 44.3% 

 7.2% 

 +4.4% 

 501 
 200 
  
 Fr10/31 

 48.7% 

 44.8% 

 6.5% 

 +4.8% 

 415 
 73 
  
 Sa11/1 

 48.9% 

 44.7% 

 6.4% 

 +4.9% 

 407 
 134 
  
 Su11/2 

 51.8% 

 42.9% 

 5.3% 

 +4.5% 

 473 
 266 
  
 Mo11/3 

 49.9% 

 45.2% 

 4.8% 

 +3.9% 

 619 
 219 
  
 

 
Ballot Question:
Should Oahu Rail Transit Include Steel-on-Steel?
Three Day Tracking Poll
 
 Last 3 Days Ending:      Fr10/24 



Yes    45.1% 



No    46.7% 



Undecided    8.2% 



Margin of Error    +4.4% 



Completed Surveys    499 
(Daily Count)     182 
      
 Sa10/25 

 46.5% 

 46.0% 

 7.5% 

 +3.8% 

 650 
 254 
  
 Su10/26 

 48.9% 

 43.8% 

 7.2% 

 +3.8% 

 650 
 214 
  
 Mo10/27 

 49.8% 

 44.2% 

 6.0% 

 +4.0% 

 613 
 145 
  
 Tu10/28 

 49.6% 

 44.4% 

 6.0% 

 +4.3% 

 518 
 159 
  
 We10/29 

 46.9% 

 48.4% 

 4.7% 

 +4.6% 

 446 
 142 
  
 Th10/30 

 46.1% 

 48.7% 

 5.2% 

 +4.4% 

 501 
 200 
  
 Fr10/31 

 45.8% 

 50.6% 

 3.6% 

 +4.8% 

 415 
 73 
  
 Sa11/1 

 45.0% 

 50.9% 

 4.2% 

 +4.9% 

 407 
 134 
  
 Su11/2 

 46.9% 

 48.6% 

 4.4% 

 +4.5% 

 473 
 266 
  
 Mo11/3 

 44.9% 

 49.9% 

 5.2% 

 +3.9% 

 619 
 219 
  
 

Senate District 12
The race is a statistical tie but Gordon Trimble has momentum.
     
9/24/08 - 11/3/08
  
Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)
        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base  

 


 


Brickwood Galuteria (D)   43.7% +4.9% 173   35.9% +15.1% 14

 


 


Gordon Trimble (R)   45.7% +4.9% 181   59.0% +15.4% 23

 


 


Undecided   10.6% +3.0% 42   5.1% +6.9% 2

 


 


TOTALS   100.0%   396   100.0%   39

 


 


Senate District 21
Colleen Hanabusa is ahead and still has momentum.
     
9/25/08 - 11/3/08
  
Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)
        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base  

 


 


Colleen Hanabusa (D)   63.8% +5.3% 199   62.5% +19.4% 15

 


 


Dickyj Johnson (R)   27.6% +5.0% 86   29.2% +18.2% 7

 


 


Undecided   8.7% +3.1% 27   8.3% +11.1% 2

 


 


TOTALS   100.0%   312   100.0%   24

 


 


Senate District 23
Clayton Hee is ahead and still has momentum.
     
9/24/08 - 11/3/08
  
Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)
        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base  

 


 


Richard Fale (R)   38.6% +4.3% 187   36.7% +13.5% 18

 


 


Clayton Hee (D)   51.1% +4.4% 248   51.0% +14.0% 25

 


 


Undecided   10.3% +2.7% 50   12.2% +9.2% 6

 


 


TOTALS   100.0%   485   100.0%   49

 


 



House District 17
Gene Ward is ahead and still has momentum.
     
9/24/08 - 11/3/08
  
Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)
        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base  

 


 


Amy Monk (D)   38.8% +5.8% 106   38.9% +22.5% 7

 


 


Gene Ward (R)   54.2% +5.9% 148   55.6% +23.0% 10

 


 


Undecided   7.0% +3.0% 19   5.6% +10.6% 1

 


 


TOTALS   100.0%   273   100.0%   18

 


 


House District 19
Barbara Marumoto is ahead and still has momentum.
     
9/24/08 - 11/3/08
  
Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)
        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base  

 


 


Mike Abe (D)   36.2% +6.2% 83   33.3% +18.9% 8

 


 


Barbara Marumoto (R)   59.4% +6.4% 136   66.7% +18.9% 16

 


 


Undecided   4.4% +2.6% 10   0.0% +0.0% 0

 


 


TOTALS   100.0%   229   100.0%   24

 


 


House District 20
Calvin Say is ahead and should win.
     
9/24/08 - 11/3/08
  
Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)
        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base  

 


 


Julia Allen (R)   21.1% +5.5% 44   5.0% +9.6% 1

 


 


Calvin Say (D)   72.2% +6.1% 151   90.0% +13.1% 18

 


 


Undecided   6.7% +3.4% 14   5.0% +9.6% 1

 


 


TOTALS   100.0%   209   100.0%   20

 


 


House District 23
The race is a statistical tie but Anne Stevens has momentum.
     
9/25/08 - 11/3/08
  
Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)
        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base  

 


 


Tom Brower (D)   44.1% +6.5% 100   44.8% +18.1% 13

 


 


Anne Stevens (R)   47.1% +6.5% 107   55.2% +18.1% 16

 


 


Undecided   8.8% +3.7% 20   0.0% +0.0% 0

 


 


TOTALS   100.0%   227   100.0%   29

 


 



House District 24
Isaac Choy is ahead and still has momentum.
     
9/24/08 - 11/3/08
  
Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)
        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base  

 


 


Isaac Choy (D)   64.6% +6.0% 159   63.2% +21.7% 12

 


 


Jerilyn Jeffryes (R)   23.6% +5.3% 58   36.8% +21.7% 7

 


 


Undecided   11.8% +4.0% 29   0.0% +0.0% 0

 


 


TOTALS   100.0%   246   100.0%   19

 


 


House District 27
The race is a statistical tie but Corinne Ching has momentum.
     
9/24/08 - 11/3/08
  
Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)
        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base  

 


 


Corinne Ching (R)   38.9% +8.0% 56   52.9% +23.7% 9

 


 


Sesnita Moepono (D)   50.7% +8.2% 73   29.4% +21.7% 5

 


 


Undecided   10.4% +5.0% 15   17.6% +18.1% 3

 


 


TOTALS   100.0%   144   100.0%   17

 


 


House District 29
Joey Manahan is ahead and should win.
     
9/24/08 - 11/3/08
  
Last 5 days (11/2 - 11/3)
        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base  

 


 


Joey Manahan (D)   70.8% +9.4% 63   85.7% +25.9% 6

 


 


Shane Yaw (R)   14.6% +7.3% 13   14.3% +25.9% 1

 


 


Undecided   14.6% +7.3% 13   0.0% +0.0% 0

 


 


TOTALS   100.0%   89   100.0%   7

 


 


House District 35
Henry Aquino is ahead and should win.
     
9/25/08 - 11/2/08
  
Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/2)
        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base  

 


 


Steven Antonio (R)   17.7% +6.7% 22   20.0% +24.8% 2

 


 


Henry Aquino (D)   74.2% +7.7% 92   80.0% +24.8% 8

 


 


Undecided   8.1% +4.8% 10   0.0% +0.0% 0

 


 


TOTALS   100.0%   124   100.0%   10

 


 



House District 36
Roy Takumi is ahead and should win.
     
9/24/08 - 11/3/08
  
Last 5 days (11/1 - 11/3)
        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base  

 


 


Christopher Lum Lee (N)   23.5% +6.4% 40   21.1% +18.3% 4

 


 


Roy Takumi (D)   63.5% +7.2% 108   63.2% +21.7% 12

 


 


Undecided   12.9% +5.0% 22   15.8% +16.4% 3

 


 


TOTALS   100.0%   170   100.0%   19

 


 


House District 38
Marilyn Lee is ahead but Melvin Apana has momentum.
     
9/24/08 - 11/3/08
  
Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)
        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base  

 


 


Melvin Apana (R)   32.4% +6.2% 71   56.5% +20.3% 13

 


 


Marilyn Lee (D)   61.2% +6.5% 134   43.5% +20.3% 10

 


 


Undecided   6.4% +3.2% 14   0.0% +0.0% 0

 


 


TOTALS   100.0%   219   100.0%   23

 


 


House District 40
Sharon Har is ahead and still has momentum.
     
9/24/08 - 11/3/08
  
Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)
        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base  

 


 


Sharon Har (D)   63.7% +6.5% 135   57.1% +21.2% 12

 


 


Jack Legal (R)   30.7% +6.2% 65   38.1% +20.8% 8

 


 


Undecided   5.7% +3.1% 12   4.8% +9.1% 1

 


 


TOTALS   100.0%   212   100.0%   21

 


 


House District 41
Jon Riki Karamatsu is ahead and still has momentum.
     
9/24/08 - 11/3/08
  
Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)
        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base  

 


 


Jon Riki Karamatsu (D)   54.3% +8.3% 75   50.0% +28.3% 6

 


 


Rito Saniatan (R)   35.5% +8.0% 49   41.7% +27.9% 5

 


 


Undecided   10.1% +5.0% 14   8.3% +15.6% 1

 


 


TOTALS   100.0%   138   100.0%   12

 


 



House District 42
The race is a statistical tie but Rida Cabanilla has momentum.
     
9/25/08 - 11/3/08
  
Last 5 days (11/2 - 11/3)
        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base  

 


 


Tom Berg (R)   50.0% +9.4% 54   28.6% +33.5% 2

 


 


Genaro Bimbo (N)   4.6% +4.0% 5   0.0% +0.0% 0

 


 


Rida Cabanilla (D)   38.9% +9.2% 42   57.1% +36.7% 4

 


 


Undecided   6.5% +4.6% 7   14.3% +25.9% 1

 


 


TOTALS   100.0%   108   100.0%   7

 


 


House District 43
Kymberly Pine is ahead and should win.
     
9/24/08 - 11/3/08
  
Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)
        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base  

 


 


Kurt Fevella (D)   24.8% +5.6% 57   18.8% +19.1% 3

 


 


Kymberly Pine (R)   70.4% +5.9% 162   81.2% +19.1% 13

 


 


Undecided   4.8% +2.8% 11   0.0% +0.0% 0

 


 


TOTALS   100.0%   230   100.0%   16

 


 


House District 44
Karen Awana is ahead and still has momentum.
     
9/25/08 - 11/3/08
  
Last 5 days (11/2 - 11/3)
        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base  

 


 


Karen Awana (D)   67.8% +7.6% 99   50.0% +26.2% 7

 


 


Tercia Ku (R)   22.6% +6.8% 33   35.7% +25.1% 5

 


 


Undecided   9.6% +4.8% 14   14.3% +18.3% 2

 


 


TOTALS   100.0%   146   100.0%   14

 


 



House District 45
Maile Shimabukuro is ahead and still has momentum.
     
9/25/08 - 11/2/08
  
Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/2)
        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base  

 


 


Derek Gapol (R)   31.7% +6.7% 58   38.5% +26.4% 5

 


 


Maile Shimabukuro (D)   62.8% +7.0% 115   53.8% +27.1% 7

 


 


Undecided   5.5% +3.3% 10   7.7% +14.5% 1

 


 


TOTALS   100.0%   183   100.0%   13

 


 


House District 46
Gil Riviere is ahead and should win.
     
9/24/08 - 11/3/08
  
Last 5 days (11/1 - 11/3)
        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base  

 


 


Mike Magaoay (D)   33.8% +6.4% 72   16.7% +17.2% 3

 


 


Gil Riviere  (R)   57.3% +6.6% 122   77.8% +19.2% 14

 


 


Undecided   8.9% +3.8% 19   5.6% +10.6% 1

 


 


TOTALS   100.0%   213   100.0%   18

 


 


House District 47
The race is a statistical tie but Colleen Meyer has momentum.
     
9/25/08 - 11/3/08
  
Last 5 days (11/1 - 11/3)
        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base  

 


 


Colleen Meyer (R)   42.8% +5.8% 121   48.1% +18.8% 13

 


 


Jessica Wooley (D)   53.7% +5.8% 152   44.4% +18.7% 12

 


 


Undecided   3.5% +2.2% 10   7.4% +9.9% 2

 


 


TOTALS   100.0%   283   100.0%   27

 


 


House District 51
Chris Lee is ahead and still has momentum.
     
9/24/08 - 11/3/08
  
Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)
        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base  

 


 


Quentin Kawananakoa (R)   36.6% +5.5% 107   37.9% +17.7% 11

 


 


Chris Lee (D)   57.2% +5.7% 167   55.2% +18.1% 16

 


 


Undecided   6.2% +2.8% 18   6.9% +9.2% 2

 


 


TOTALS   100.0%   292   100.0%   29

 


 



 

How to determine "statistical significance": Even though one ballot choice may be winning percentage-wise over another, the margin of error determines how much stock we can put into the results. To determine if the poll's results are "statistically significant," you: (1) subtract the margin of error from the ballot choice with the higher percentage, then (2) add the margin of error to the ballot choice with the lower percentage. If the higher percentage (after subtracting the margin of error) is still larger than lower percentage (after adding the margin of error), then the poll results are statistically significant. Our analysis assumes a 95% confidence level. This means that, if the results are statistically significant, there is a 95% chance that the poll accurate. In other words, only a 5% chance that the poll is wrong, or that the winner is actually the loser. Note that this assumes that the undecided vote will split with approximately the same ratio as the decided vote. Trends late in the campaign can affect this assumption. Note also that people can change their minds. Other assumptions include negligible biases for voters with unlisted numbers (including cell-phone only voters) and voters who do not answer the phone or fail to complete the survey. See the disclaimer below.



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Disclaimer
Advances in Internet telephony have resulted in computerized interviewing systems such as TouchTonePoll.com. Automated systems dial the phone, play questions and then record answers given by the respondent touching numbers on the telephone keypad. Although our polls use scientific sampling methods, they may be more vulnerable to problems including uncontrolled selection of respondents within the household, the ability of non-voters or unlikely voters to complete the survey, and poor response rates. TouchTonePoll.com attempts to minimize these effects with pre-screening questions and rescheduling contact attempts to improve response rates, however these vulnerabilities can still exist, especially when compared to well run scientific surveys with human poll takers. Note however that TouchTonePoll.com surveys may be less skewed by "social desirability bias" that can exist in traditional polls. A social desirability bias occurs when voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference; they will open themselves to criticism. Respondents may feel less inhibited answering by touchtone to a machine, rather than orally to a human poll taker.

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