TouchTonePoll.com Daily Tracking Poll

TouchTonePoll.com
Five Minute Scientific Polls

TouchTonePoll.com conducted a rolling poll on Oahu between September 24th and November 3rd, 2008. Several thousand listed phone numbers of households of registered Oahu voters were called each day. A total of 7,104 valid respondents completed telephone surveys. Phone numbers were chosen randomly and calls were uniformly distributed across the 35 house districts on Oahu. Calls were made mostly in the evenings and all day on weekends.

Respondents were asked if the election were held today, how they would vote in the mayoral race and on the rail transit ballot question. If they live in a precinct with a house or senate race, they were asked how they would vote in those races. Then they were asked their gender, party affiliation and age. If they completed the survey and were 18 years or older, their survey was included in our results.

For the Mayoral race and the Rail ballot question, the first are two tables show the last 10 days results of a daily tracking poll up to the day before the election. Each column shows the results for surveys completed that day and the two previous days.

The Oahu State House and Senate race summaries are shown next. For each race, the left side of the table shows the poll results since September 24th. This may not be accurate especially as new information about new candidates arise toward the end of the campaign. The right side of the table shows the poll results for the last 5 days. The margins of error for the 5 day poll will be high but may still provide an indication which candidate has momentum. The statement describing the state of each race was generated automatically based on who is ahead and the margins of error. Polls for state legislative races can be very unreliable as election day campaigning and GOTV activites can add a couple hundred votes which can flip a close race.

Honolulu Mayoral Race
Three Day Tracking Poll

Last 3 Days Ending:		Fr10/24

Mufi Hannemann		51.3%

Ann Kobayashi		41.9%

Undecided		6.8%

Margin of Error		+4.4%

Completed Surveys		499
(Daily Count)		182

Sa10/25

50.9%

42.3%

6.8%

+3.8%

650
254

Su10/26

51.2%

42.5%

6.3%

+3.8%

650
214

Mo10/27

50.9%

43.1%

6.0%

+4.0%

613
145

Tu10/28

51.4%

41.9%

6.8%

+4.3%

518
159

We10/29

50.4%

42.6%

7.0%

+4.6%

446
142

Th10/30

48.5%

44.3%

7.2%

+4.4%

501
200

Fr10/31

48.7%

44.8%

6.5%

+4.8%

415
73

Sa11/1

48.9%

44.7%

6.4%

+4.9%

407
134

Su11/2

51.8%

42.9%

5.3%

+4.5%

473
266

Mo11/3

49.9%

45.2%

4.8%

+3.9%

619
219

Ballot Question:
Should Oahu Rail Transit Include Steel-on-Steel?
Three Day Tracking Poll

Last 3 Days Ending:		Fr10/24

Yes		45.1%

No		46.7%

Undecided		8.2%

Margin of Error		+4.4%

Completed Surveys		499
(Daily Count)		182

Sa10/25

46.5%

46.0%

7.5%

+3.8%

650
254

Su10/26

48.9%

43.8%

7.2%

+3.8%

650
214

Mo10/27

49.8%

44.2%

6.0%

+4.0%

613
145

Tu10/28

49.6%

44.4%

6.0%

+4.3%

518
159

We10/29

46.9%

48.4%

4.7%

+4.6%

446
142

Th10/30

46.1%

48.7%

5.2%

+4.4%

501
200

Fr10/31

45.8%

50.6%

3.6%

+4.8%

415
73

Sa11/1

45.0%

50.9%

4.2%

+4.9%

407
134

Su11/2

46.9%

48.6%

4.4%

+4.5%

473
266

Mo11/3

44.9%

49.9%

5.2%

+3.9%

619
219

Senate District 12

The race is a statistical tie but Gordon Trimble has momentum.


9/24/08 - 11/3/08

Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)

        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base

Brickwood Galuteria (D) 43.7% +4.9% 173 35.9% +15.1% 14

Gordon Trimble (R) 45.7% +4.9% 181 59.0% +15.4% 23

Undecided 10.6% +3.0% 42 5.1% +6.9% 2

TOTALS 100.0% 396 100.0% 39

Senate District 21

Colleen Hanabusa is ahead and still has momentum.


9/25/08 - 11/3/08

Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)

        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base

Colleen Hanabusa (D) 63.8% +5.3% 199 62.5% +19.4% 15

Dickyj Johnson (R) 27.6% +5.0% 86 29.2% +18.2% 7

Undecided 8.7% +3.1% 27 8.3% +11.1% 2

TOTALS 100.0% 312 100.0% 24

Senate District 23

Clayton Hee is ahead and still has momentum.


9/24/08 - 11/3/08

Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)

        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base

Richard Fale (R) 38.6% +4.3% 187 36.7% +13.5% 18

Clayton Hee (D) 51.1% +4.4% 248 51.0% +14.0% 25

Undecided 10.3% +2.7% 50 12.2% +9.2% 6

TOTALS 100.0% 485 100.0% 49

House District 17

Gene Ward is ahead and still has momentum.


9/24/08 - 11/3/08

Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)

        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base

Amy Monk (D) 38.8% +5.8% 106 38.9% +22.5% 7

Gene Ward (R) 54.2% +5.9% 148 55.6% +23.0% 10

Undecided 7.0% +3.0% 19 5.6% +10.6% 1

TOTALS 100.0% 273 100.0% 18

House District 19

Barbara Marumoto is ahead and still has momentum.


9/24/08 - 11/3/08

Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)

        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base

Mike Abe (D) 36.2% +6.2% 83 33.3% +18.9% 8

Barbara Marumoto (R) 59.4% +6.4% 136 66.7% +18.9% 16

Undecided 4.4% +2.6% 10 0.0% +0.0% 0

TOTALS 100.0% 229 100.0% 24

House District 20

Calvin Say is ahead and should win.


9/24/08 - 11/3/08

Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)

        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base

Julia Allen (R) 21.1% +5.5% 44 5.0% +9.6% 1

Calvin Say (D) 72.2% +6.1% 151 90.0% +13.1% 18

Undecided 6.7% +3.4% 14 5.0% +9.6% 1

TOTALS 100.0% 209 100.0% 20

House District 23

The race is a statistical tie but Anne Stevens has momentum.


9/25/08 - 11/3/08

Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)

        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base

Tom Brower (D) 44.1% +6.5% 100 44.8% +18.1% 13

Anne Stevens (R) 47.1% +6.5% 107 55.2% +18.1% 16

Undecided 8.8% +3.7% 20 0.0% +0.0% 0

TOTALS 100.0% 227 100.0% 29

House District 24

Isaac Choy is ahead and still has momentum.


9/24/08 - 11/3/08

Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)

        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base

Isaac Choy (D) 64.6% +6.0% 159 63.2% +21.7% 12

Jerilyn Jeffryes (R) 23.6% +5.3% 58 36.8% +21.7% 7

Undecided 11.8% +4.0% 29 0.0% +0.0% 0

TOTALS 100.0% 246 100.0% 19

House District 27

The race is a statistical tie but Corinne Ching has momentum.


9/24/08 - 11/3/08

Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)

        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base

Corinne Ching (R) 38.9% +8.0% 56 52.9% +23.7% 9

Sesnita Moepono (D) 50.7% +8.2% 73 29.4% +21.7% 5

Undecided 10.4% +5.0% 15 17.6% +18.1% 3

TOTALS 100.0% 144 100.0% 17

House District 29

Joey Manahan is ahead and should win.


9/24/08 - 11/3/08

Last 5 days (11/2 - 11/3)

        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base

Joey Manahan (D) 70.8% +9.4% 63 85.7% +25.9% 6

Shane Yaw (R) 14.6% +7.3% 13 14.3% +25.9% 1

Undecided 14.6% +7.3% 13 0.0% +0.0% 0

TOTALS 100.0% 89 100.0% 7

House District 35

Henry Aquino is ahead and should win.


9/25/08 - 11/2/08

Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/2)

        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base

Steven Antonio (R) 17.7% +6.7% 22 20.0% +24.8% 2

Henry Aquino (D) 74.2% +7.7% 92 80.0% +24.8% 8

Undecided 8.1% +4.8% 10 0.0% +0.0% 0

TOTALS 100.0% 124 100.0% 10

House District 36

Roy Takumi is ahead and should win.


9/24/08 - 11/3/08

Last 5 days (11/1 - 11/3)

        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base

Christopher Lum Lee (N) 23.5% +6.4% 40 21.1% +18.3% 4

Roy Takumi (D) 63.5% +7.2% 108 63.2% +21.7% 12

Undecided 12.9% +5.0% 22 15.8% +16.4% 3

TOTALS 100.0% 170 100.0% 19

House District 38

Marilyn Lee is ahead but Melvin Apana has momentum.


9/24/08 - 11/3/08

Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)

        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base

Melvin Apana (R) 32.4% +6.2% 71 56.5% +20.3% 13

Marilyn Lee (D) 61.2% +6.5% 134 43.5% +20.3% 10

Undecided 6.4% +3.2% 14 0.0% +0.0% 0

TOTALS 100.0% 219 100.0% 23

House District 40

Sharon Har is ahead and still has momentum.


9/24/08 - 11/3/08

Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)

        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base

Sharon Har (D) 63.7% +6.5% 135 57.1% +21.2% 12

Jack Legal (R) 30.7% +6.2% 65 38.1% +20.8% 8

Undecided 5.7% +3.1% 12 4.8% +9.1% 1

TOTALS 100.0% 212 100.0% 21

House District 41

Jon Riki Karamatsu is ahead and still has momentum.


9/24/08 - 11/3/08

Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)

        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base

Jon Riki Karamatsu (D) 54.3% +8.3% 75 50.0% +28.3% 6

Rito Saniatan (R) 35.5% +8.0% 49 41.7% +27.9% 5

Undecided 10.1% +5.0% 14 8.3% +15.6% 1

TOTALS 100.0% 138 100.0% 12

House District 42

The race is a statistical tie but Rida Cabanilla has momentum.


9/25/08 - 11/3/08

Last 5 days (11/2 - 11/3)

        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base

Tom Berg (R) 50.0% +9.4% 54 28.6% +33.5% 2

Genaro Bimbo (N) 4.6% +4.0% 5 0.0% +0.0% 0

Rida Cabanilla (D) 38.9% +9.2% 42 57.1% +36.7% 4

Undecided 6.5% +4.6% 7 14.3% +25.9% 1

TOTALS 100.0% 108 100.0% 7

House District 43

Kymberly Pine is ahead and should win.


9/24/08 - 11/3/08

Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)

        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base

Kurt Fevella (D) 24.8% +5.6% 57 18.8% +19.1% 3

Kymberly Pine (R) 70.4% +5.9% 162 81.2% +19.1% 13

Undecided 4.8% +2.8% 11 0.0% +0.0% 0

TOTALS 100.0% 230 100.0% 16

House District 44

Karen Awana is ahead and still has momentum.


9/25/08 - 11/3/08

Last 5 days (11/2 - 11/3)

        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base

Karen Awana (D) 67.8% +7.6% 99 50.0% +26.2% 7

Tercia Ku (R) 22.6% +6.8% 33 35.7% +25.1% 5

Undecided 9.6% +4.8% 14 14.3% +18.3% 2

TOTALS 100.0% 146 100.0% 14

House District 45

Maile Shimabukuro is ahead and still has momentum.


9/25/08 - 11/2/08

Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/2)

        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base

Derek Gapol (R) 31.7% +6.7% 58 38.5% +26.4% 5

Maile Shimabukuro (D) 62.8% +7.0% 115 53.8% +27.1% 7

Undecided 5.5% +3.3% 10 7.7% +14.5% 1

TOTALS 100.0% 183 100.0% 13

House District 46

Gil Riviere is ahead and should win.


9/24/08 - 11/3/08

Last 5 days (11/1 - 11/3)

        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base

Mike Magaoay (D) 33.8% +6.4% 72 16.7% +17.2% 3

Gil Riviere (R) 57.3% +6.6% 122 77.8% +19.2% 14

Undecided 8.9% +3.8% 19 5.6% +10.6% 1

TOTALS 100.0% 213 100.0% 18

House District 47

The race is a statistical tie but Colleen Meyer has momentum.


9/25/08 - 11/3/08

Last 5 days (11/1 - 11/3)

        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base

Colleen Meyer (R) 42.8% +5.8% 121 48.1% +18.8% 13

Jessica Wooley (D) 53.7% +5.8% 152 44.4% +18.7% 12

Undecided 3.5% +2.2% 10 7.4% +9.9% 2

TOTALS 100.0% 283 100.0% 27

House District 51

Chris Lee is ahead and still has momentum.


9/24/08 - 11/3/08

Last 5 days (10/31 - 11/3)

        Percent     Error     Base        Percent     Error     Base

Quentin Kawananakoa (R) 36.6% +5.5% 107 37.9% +17.7% 11

Chris Lee (D) 57.2% +5.7% 167 55.2% +18.1% 16

Undecided 6.2% +2.8% 18 6.9% +9.2% 2

TOTALS 100.0% 292 100.0% 29

How to determine "statistical significance": Even though one ballot choice may be winning percentage-wise over another, the margin of error determines how much stock we can put into the results. To determine if the poll's results are "statistically significant," you: (1) subtract the margin of error from the ballot choice with the higher percentage, then (2) add the margin of error to the ballot choice with the lower percentage. If the higher percentage (after subtracting the margin of error) is still larger than lower percentage (after adding the margin of error), then the poll results are statistically significant. Our analysis assumes a 95% confidence level. This means that, if the results are statistically significant, there is a 95% chance that the poll accurate. In other words, only a 5% chance that the poll is wrong, or that the winner is actually the loser. Note that this assumes that the undecided vote will split with approximately the same ratio as the decided vote. Trends late in the campaign can affect this assumption. Note also that people can change their minds. Other assumptions include negligible biases for voters with unlisted numbers (including cell-phone only voters) and voters who do not answer the phone or fail to complete the survey. See the disclaimer below.

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Disclaimer

Advances in Internet telephony have resulted in computerized interviewing systems such as TouchTonePoll.com. Automated systems dial the phone, play questions and then record answers given by the respondent touching numbers on the telephone keypad. Although our polls use scientific sampling methods, they may be more vulnerable to problems including uncontrolled selection of respondents within the household, the ability of non-voters or unlikely voters to complete the survey, and poor response rates. TouchTonePoll.com attempts to minimize these effects with pre-screening questions and rescheduling contact attempts to improve response rates, however these vulnerabilities can still exist, especially when compared to well run scientific surveys with human poll takers. Note however that TouchTonePoll.com surveys may be less skewed by "social desirability bias" that can exist in traditional polls. A social desirability bias occurs when voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference; they will open themselves to criticism. Respondents may feel less inhibited answering by touchtone to a machine, rather than orally to a human poll taker.